Reflection: Weekend at Bernie's

I didn't know what to expect as I drove out to Hollis, New Hampshire for a Hillsborough County Democrats dinner on June 29 to see my first candidate for the Democratic nomination.

That is, I didn't know what the event facility would look like, I didn't know how the event staff would receive me, and I didn't know when the keynote speaker, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, would arrive. I, like most Americans who have not been living under a rock for the past four years, knew more or less what Sanders would say.

Still, I was surprised to hear Sanders make such an explicit case for his electability. With a rare glimpse into his personal life, Sanders revealed that he and his wife Jane Sanders had "more discussion on [whether he would run for president] than anything we have ever had in our thirty years of marriage."

"On Monday, we kind of concluded it would be a good idea for me to run for president and on Tuesday, we thought of all the reasons why it was a ridiculous idea and on Wednesday, we went around the circle and on and on and on it went," Sanders said.

The Alpine Grove banquet facility in Hollis, New Hampshire hosted approximately 300 people on June 29 to hear Bernie Sanders, the keynote speaker at the Hillsborough County Democrats Grassroots Awards Dinner.

While much of their discussion centered around the additional media scrutiny that a presidential campaign would bring upon the Sanders family, the Vermont Senator indicated that their conversation also included a consideration of his electability. "We reached the conclusion that if we are going to defeat this very dangerous president, that the likelihood is that I am the best candidate to do that," Sanders said.

Speaking to an audience of elected officials, party volunteers and grassroots activists, Sanders cited his head-to-head poll numbers against Donald Trump in battleground states like New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin at the dinner. The next day, at an ice cream social in Windham, New Hampshire, Ben and Jerry's co-founder and Sanders campaign national co-chair Ben Cohen echoed the same message: "Bernie beats Trump!"

On the one hand, I was not surprised at all that a candidate for the Democratic nomination was emphasizing his or her electability, as polling indicates that many Democratic voters are prioritizing their perception of a candidate's electability over the candidate's views on policy.

At a debate watch party hosted by the Warren campaign in Manchester on June 26, the walls were decorated with multi-colored "Win With Warren" signs. The following night on June 27, Joe Biden supporters in Nashua told me that they were most concerned with "who do we think can win in a general election" at their own debate watch party.

But voters are notoriously bad at predicting electability (Barack Obama was not considered electable in the early stages of the 2008 primary) and electability itself is often a "coded term," weaponized against female candidates and candidates of color.

And while Sanders does defeat Trump in most hypothetical general election polls, he is not alone. Biden, Warren and Harris all beat Trump in the same hypothetical head-to-head polls.

So I was surprised to hear Sanders emphasize his electability. Maybe Sanders senses that Biden, who has consistently posted the best margins against Trump in the head-to-head polls, is vulnerable after his lackluster debate performance. Or maybe Sanders is worried about Warren and Harris, who have sometimes edged Trump by narrower margins in the head-to-head polls but enjoyed breakout debate performances.

Either way, particularly at the ice cream socials on June 30, you could really start to believe that Sanders was a formidable general election candidate, at least in New Hampshire.

Sanders supporters applauded as Ben and Jerry's co-founder and national campaign co-chair Ben Cohen introduced their candidate at an ice cream social in Windham, New Hampshire.

The public high school cafeteria in Windham, New Hampshire where Sanders hosted his third ice cream social of the afternoon was packed with several hundred supporters. As more and more people arrived, campaign staffers wheeled in extra carts of folding chairs and more than doubled the seating capacity. Even then, the crowd was standing-room-only.

The second ice cream social of the afternoon, which was moved from the Centre School in Hampton, New Hampshire to a nearby restaurant because of inclement weather, was even more of a spectacle. I arrived late and could not get up to the open-air patio on the second floor where Sanders was speaking because his supporters were standing shoulder-to-shoulder at the top of the stairwell.

I turned around, walked down the stairs and waited outside the restaurant, where several dozen Sanders supporters were listening to his speech over the sound system from the parking lot. As his voice echoed throughout parking lot from above, the crowd below remained quiet, taking in his every word.

Sanders supporters lined up to take selfies with their candidate after an ice cream social in Hampton, New Hampshire on June 30. Sanders delivered his stump speech on the second-floor patio of a local restaurant.

Only when Sanders finished his stump speech did I find my way upstairs to the second-floor patio. The Vermont Senator had invited any and all supporters to line up and take a "selfie" with him.

"Seems to be very fashionable nowadays," Sanders said.

This work is made possible by the Russell H. Bostert Memorial Fellowship at Williams College.